Trying to turn X into Software
K Health - Turning Doctor’s into Software
I discovered K Health last week thanks to Trendy! K Health is software to help you understand your symptoms (like WebMD), and an ability for a Doctor via Telemedicine to prescribe medication — all bundled together in an easy to use iPhone app. They solve the “easy” stuff. Frankly, this is what I use OneMedical for — from a flu shot to prescription renewals to a quick check if I’m not feeling great — OneMedical makes life easy in terms of getting an appointment, being seen on time, and being treated for simple issues. OneMedical costs ~$200 a year just for access. If K Health can turn even part of a Doctor into software, and provide the convenience of being available from my phone - this feels like a very significant value improvement and market expansion — as well as — a great use of “machine learning” (i.e. statistics).
Credit to Ben Evans for this framing. He originally used it to describe Tesla as in Elon is trying to turn cars into software. What are other examples of this?
Git Scraping: Track changes over time by scraping data into a Git repository
What is Git Scraping? Have a computer automatically track changes on a webpage or in a data set over time and record them. The best example I’ve seen is this election scraper: https://github.com/alex/nyt-2020-election-scraper - It repeatedly checked the NY Times election coverage and recorded the vote tallies every few minutes. They paired this scraping with a nice visual display each time there was an update:
You could watch as the vote counts came in and see how the election was trending, and, given their great design, understand what would need to happen for a given candidate to win a state. I found this data and it’s presentation much more compelling than talking heads discussing potentialities — as this presented “the facts” moment by moment.
Git Scraping is a general tool — so it can be applied to anything. Read more here: https://simonwillison.net/2020/Oct/9/git-scraping/ — with examples of tracking trees in San Francisco, CA Fires, Air Quality — or develop your own!
Quick Hits:
Play Games Make Friends
I strongly believe this. I have personally formed great friendships via video games and I think Peter’s tweet here captures how the right game can afford such opportunities.
Making PCBs - Easier and easier everyday
Today, having a Printed Circuit Board (PCB) printed is fast, easy and inexpensive. Just head to pcbway.com or jlcpcb.com and you will have your board printed, assembled and delivered in ~ 2 weeks.
The hard part is designing a PCB and selecting the components. While the necessary tools are open source and available (eg KiCad) knowing how to use them and understanding the components for a specific project requires experience (i.e. a lot of mistakes). Unfortunately, unlike with code, it is difficult to iterate quickly as there is no easy/fast feedback loop to build, test and then fix/improve.
However, it seems we are on the cusp of changes that will empower 10x more people to design and create PCBs. Be it via a tool like what SparkFun released below (in short, you tell them what you want the board to do, they auto-design a board for you. The good news, the board works, the bad news, it is big and ugly) or via tools like jitX which enable you to define electronics in software (used by the US Military). This new ability to design PCBs is going to be fun!
“We welcomed 250,000 permanent full-time and part-time employees just in Q3 and have already added about 100,000 more in the first month of Q4” Source: Q3 2020 Amazon earnings call
The scale here is incredible. Driving up US 101 North towards San Francisco, I saw a new Amazon ad with the key sales pitch: “Start your job in 7 days”. Here is a version from Boston:
Also worth watching this video detailing Amazon’s robotic workforce.
And last — Amazon’s Capex
“The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger - Good article on Compounders https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/cream-part-i-c80 — which in many ways speaks to AMZN’s reinvestment / Capex. The moats Amazon is building within fulfillment are impressive (See the robotic workforce video above). Any Direct to Consumer business has the choice of working with Amazon or working with Shopify when it comes to logistics — doing it yourself means you are either selling something highly specialized (e.g. Peloton), or you are small potatoes. My take is there is significant headroom for Shopify via their new fulfillment centers — they too acquired a robotic workforce & R&D team in the last year.
“Credit Cards as a 2% tax on the US economy” - Kai-Fu Lee - I love this insight — especially in comparison to what Ant Financial has built in China and the ease of transacting they provide. The QR Code system + WeChat is broadly adopted and provides a leg up over the financial systems in the US. They have bundled communication + money — with effectively no fee (in some instances a 0.02% fee - yes 100x lower). Think of it this way, anyone can start a business — be it virtual or physical — with just the smartphone and WeChat account they already have. Transactions are instant, and when fraud is a concern, it is controlled via social connections — meaning you only buy from vendors when you have a friend that can vouch for them. Looking to communicate with your customers? You already have their information in WeChat (from the prior transaction) and can run marketing programs to keep them in the loop on future offerings, deals, etc — again all from the phone you already have — no special software needed, no special education needed to use the tools.
Data based decisions - voting edition: An interactive map of homeowner tax subsidies in California
I’m very excited to see tools and resources like this to help political leaders and citizens understand the impact of various laws and propositions. My hope is this new ability to visualize is used to guide future decision making. There is an opportunity to move from discussing political ideals and instead look explicitly at data and the impact of a proposed change.